JCR:  Can people just show up for vaccine now?

LMH:   Sometimes we are able to host walk—up clinics like we did on Friday last week at VGCC but not every day yet.  We will advertise walk-up clinics when we have those.  As for daily clinics in Oxford and Henderson,  we are aiming to offer walk-up options each day in each health department location, but not yet this week.  It’s still important for us to be able to plan how to use all 10 doses of vaccine in each vile, so we need to ensure we can see people in groups of 10 in order to use all our vaccine well.  For now, the hotline is still the best way to register, get an appointment, and ensure your spot to get your shot, but we are moving as quickly as we can to easy-access walk-up clinic options.   As our staff adjusts to getting back to daily clinics we are working on how to do this and not waste a single dose of vaccine.

JCR: How many vaccines do you expect to do per week?

LMH: We are seeing demand for a few hundred first doses per week now, and we have access to that easily. We have access to enough (Moderna) vaccine each week to meet demand for both first and second doses so nobody needs to worry that we will not be able to get more vaccine.  That’s great news.

JCR:  When everyone is fully vaccinated who has received a 1st shot as of today, what percentage of fully vaccinated adults will we have?

LMH:  I estimate approximately 45% of ADULTS in the two-county district will be vaccinated in the next four weeks.

JCR: Will the GVPH reach herd immunity?  How long will it take at present rates?

LMH:  This is a good question and a tricky one to answer given the pause in demand we seem to be seeing right now and the research that’s still needed.  Herd immunity occurs when enough people become immune to a disease to make its spread unlikely. As a result, the entire community is protected, even those who are not themselves immune. Herd immunity protects the most vulnerable members of our population.  Herd immunity is usually achieved through vaccination, but it can also occur through natural infection.  The percentage of people who need to be immune in order to achieve herd immunity varies with each disease. For example, since it’s so transmissible, herd immunity against measles requires about 95% of a population to be vaccinated. The remaining 5% will be protected by the fact that measles will not spread among those who are vaccinated.  For polio, the threshold is about 80%. The proportion of the population that must be vaccinated against COVID-19 to begin inducing herd immunity is not yet known.  In Epidemiology, which is the study of diseases in populations, ‘Ro’ (pronounced “R-naught), is a way to measure transmissibility of a disease.  The R0 tells you the average number of people that a single person with the virus can infect if those people aren’t already immune.  The higher the R0, the more people need to be resistant to reach herd immunity.  For COVID-19 it is between 2 and 3. This means that one person can infect two to three other people who aren’t already protected. It also means 50% to 67% of the population would need to be resistant before herd immunity kicks in and the infection rates start to go down.  Therefore, we hear often from doctors in the media this notion that 70% of the population should be vaccinated before we reach a level of herd immunity that we seek for COVID-19, but that data won’t be proven for some time – for now, it seems a logical goal for us to aim for.

JCR:  When can we vaccinate children?

LMH: Pfizer applied and began the process for Emergency Use Authorization for the 12-15 year old age group on Friday, April 9^th, 2021.  Pfizer is already approved for those 16 and older.  The EUA process takes a number of weeks, so my hope is that by May we should have new opportunities to vaccinate those 12 and older with this vaccine.   The New York Times reported the following:  https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/09/world/pfizer-covid-vaccine-young-teens.html

• “Pfizer and BioNTech requested on Friday (April 9)  that the Food and Drug Administration expand the emergency use authorization for their coronavirus vaccine to permit its use in children ages 12 to 15. If broadened, young adolescents could start getting vaccinated before going back to school in the fall. The companies plan to request similar authorizations from health agencies around the world in the coming days, they said in a joint statement. “These submissions represent a critical step in Pfizer’s and BioNTech’s ongoing efforts to support governments in broadening global vaccination efforts,” the statement said. Clinical trial results found the vaccine highly effective in that age group, the companies said last month. The Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine is approved for use via emergency authorization in people 16 and older. Granting approval for its use in the younger age group would also speed the country’s efforts to reach herd immunity, which will depend on vaccinating children.  More than 2,000 young adolescents participated in the vaccine trial’s third phase. Among those who received it, none developed symptomatic coronavirus infections or exhibited serious side effects, the companies said last month. The vaccinated 12- to 15-year-olds also produced higher levels of antibodies, on average, than older adolescents and young adults did. The trial results have not yet been published in a scientific journal. The Covid-19 vaccine trials for children got off to a slow start, in part because it took time to find participants. Vaccine makers initially focused on adults, partially because children were proving far less likely to die from Covid-19. A child’s biology differs from that of an adult, which can affect the way vaccines work. Moderna is also testing its vaccine in children. Results from its study of 12- to 17-year olds, which began in December, are expected soon. A separate trial consisting of children under 12 began last month. In March, Pfizer began testing its vaccine in children under 12, with results expected during the second half of the year.”